News in Brief

Emboldened Al-Shabab is why the West needs to re-engage Ethiopia

Towards COP27: African Regional Forum on Climate Initiatives to Finance Climate Action and the SDGs

Statement on the Extension of the Transitional Period in the Republic of South Sudan

Africa and the African Union

The Peace and Security Council of the African Union (AUPSC) welcomed the briefing of the AU High Representative to the Horn of Africa, Olusegun Obasanjo, on recent developments in Ethiopia. The council commended his efforts and the gains made toward a negotiated peace. AUPSC reiterated its full support for the peace efforts and called on the AU and partners to extend all necessary support to the High Representative. On Thursday (August 04), Ambassador Bankole Adeoye, African Union Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security, said that the AU remains committed to accompanying on a steady path to peace in Ethiopia.

The African Union (AU) and the Common Market for Southern and Eastern Africa (COMESA) officially launched their joint election observation mission on Friday (August 05) for the 2022 Kenya General Elections. According to a statement released by the African Union, the joint mission is led by the former President of Sierra Leone, Ernest Bai Koroma, and supported by the former Minister of Health and Social Development of Seychelles, Ambassador Marie-Pierre Lloyd, a member of the COMESA Committee of Elders.

The fourth edition of the intensive and engaging Africa Climate Talks (ACT!-4) closed last week on Thursday (July 28) in Maputo, Mozambique. This was the first session of ACT!-4 organized as part of a regional Climate Talks series by the African Climate Policy Centre (ACPC) of the ECA to pursue the theme, “Ensuring a just and equitable transition and human security in Africa: Building resilience.” This year’s theme builds on the gains realized from last year, which ran under the aegis, “Climate Change and Development in Africa: African perspectives on climate resilient recovery from COVID-19.”

Ethiopia

During his visit to Ethiopia on Tuesday (August 04), Angolan Foreign Minister Tete Antonio spoke with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Demeke Mekonon about international and regional matters. The Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister stated during the conversation that Ethiopia will endeavor to improve relations with Angola. The foreign minister of Angola, Tete Antonio, praised the measures taken by the Ethiopian government to address the nation’s critical issues. Tete Antonio believes that the two nations’ long-standing relationship should be transformed into an economic one.

More than 800 militants of the terrorist al-Shabab group were killed, including twenty-four leaders of the group, following the measures taken by security forces, according to the National Defense Force. Major General Tesfaye Ayalew said on Friday (August 05) that the terrorist Al-Shabab group, which attempted to infiltrate through Eastern Ethiopia, was successfully thwarted by the security forces’ combined efforts.

Last week, Al-Shabaab conducted a multiday campaign inside Ethiopia for the first time. Though rarely this close to the Ethiopian border, Al-Shabaab has frequently targeted the Ethiopian military forces inside Somalia. The roughly 4,000 Ethiopian soldiers serving in the African Union peacekeeping mission, currently known as the African Union Transitional Mission in Somalia, have been the target of previous Al-Shabaab strikes (ATMIS). The terrorist group seems to have shifted its goal to Ethiopian territories this time around. (See article)

Ahmed Shede, Minister of Finance, stated that Ethiopia generates more than 90% of its modern electricity from clean and green sources, including hydropower generated by the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which will also enable electricity exports to neighboring countries. He emphasized that despite having a high energy producing capacity, Ethiopia still has the second-largest energy access deficit in Sub-Saharan Africa and the third-largest in the world.The Minister was giving a speech at the ECA on August 3, 2022, the first day of a three-day African Regional Roundtable on Climate Initiatives that was held in Addis Ababa. The forum, coming ahead of Egypt’s presidency of the 27th United Nations Climate Change conference (COP27) that takes place in Sharm El Sheikh next November, was held under the theme: “Towards COP27: African Regional Forum on Climate Initiatives to Finance Climate Action and the SDGs.” (See article)

The Ethiopian Biodiversity Institute disclosed that it has planted some 1.8 million indigenous trees during this rainy season as part of the ongoing green legacy Initiative. Abera Seyuem, Forest and Rangeland Director at the Institute, told the media on Friday (August 05) that the nation has so far planted 5.4 million indigenous tree seedlings in various parts of the country since 2019. He noted that a total of 3.6 million tree seedlings were planted over the past three years, while 1.8 million seedlings were planted in the current rainy season.

The First National Internet Governance Conference kicked off in Addis Ababa on Thursday (August 04) under the theme “Internet for Inclusive Development”. The National Conference is expected to lay the foundation for the upcoming 17th International Internet Governance Forum to be held in December in Ethiopia.

Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP) announced that it is working tirelessly on expanding electricity exports to neighboring countries, having secured 95.4 million USD by selling power to Djibouti and Sudan. EEP Corporate Communication Director Moges Mekonnen told the media on Tuesday (August 02) that, over the past Ethiopian fiscal year, EEP provided neighboring countries with over 12,300 GW of energy. As a result, he stated that EEP generated over 95.4 million USD from energy export to the aforementioned countries, as well as 11 billion Birr from Ethiopian Electric Utility.

Semereta Sewasew,State Minister of the Ministry of Finance, stated on Monday (August 01) that climate resilient tech support from the African Development Bank (AfDB) through the Technologies for African Agricultural Transformation (TAAT) Program is enabling Ethiopia to transform its productivity in the agriculture sector, particularly in the lowland wheat production area. Ethiopia is now producing wheat on 650,000 hectares of land. “That is why we say we are reliable partners, producing results, and we need all the support.” She said the TAAT Program has enabled the nation to increase productivity in heat-tolerant seed farming in low land areas.

Djibouti

Ethio Telecom eyes Djibouti’s telecom market to make its first overseas service to the bordering state-owned telecom company. At a press briefing given on Thursday (July 22, 2022) regarding its annual performance, Frehiwot Tamiru, CEO of the telecommunications firm, said, “Based on the re-amendment of the Ethio telecom establishment proclamation, we have been working to figure out priority areas to expand our business outside of Ethiopia and to stay competitive.”

Kenya

Dr. Mulatu Teshome, former president of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, arrived in Nairobi on Tuesday (August 02) to lead IGAD’s short-term Election Observation Mission (IGADEOM) to the August 9 General Elections in the country. He will have meetings with senior officials, key national and international stakeholders, as well as heads of other election observation missions to brief them about the mandate of the mission. The IGAD Short-term Election Observation Mission (IGADEOM), which was constituted in response to an invitation by the Republic of Kenya, is composed of 7 core staff and 24 short-term observers.

Kenya has exported miraa (khat) worth Sh221 million in four days since the resumption of the Somalia market, highlighting the significant role that the commodity is playing in the economy. On Monday (August 01), the Head of Miraa Pyrethrum and other Industrial Crops, Felix Mutwiri, said the country has exported 81.4 tonnes of the stimulant to Mogadishu since the market opened up last weekend.

Somalia

Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud attended a commencement ceremony for the fourth graduating class of Somali National Army officers and the fifth class of deputy officers who completed military training at the TurkSom center in Mogadishu on Sunday (July 31). Mohamud thanked the Turkish government for its support in enhancing and rebuilding the Somali National Army.

Somalia’s President, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, will be in Uganda next week for a two-day state visit, in a trip seen to drum up regional support and bolster business ties as he enters the third month of his presidency. According to sources at Uganda’s Foreign Affairs ministry, the Somalia leader will hold bilateral talks with his host, President Yoweri Museveni, on security, investment, trade, and regional cooperation.

Somalia’s Prime Minister, Hamza Abdi Barre, named the country’s new cabinet on Tuesday (August 02), some 40 days since he took office. Barre made the announcement in a televised address, noting that the 26 names nominated were done in consultation with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. He said the nominations were made to dovetail into President Mohamud’s agenda of tackling drought, insecurity, the development of the country’s economy and job creation for Somali youth.

Somalia has appointed the former deputy leader and spokesman for the Al-Shabaab Islamist group as religion minister, Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre said Tuesday (August 02). Robow, 53, publicly defected from the Al-Qaeda-linked militants in August 2017, with the United States government at one point offering a $5-million bounty for his capture.

The Acting Foreign Minister and State Minister for Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, Balal Mohamed Cusman, delivered a speech during a ministerial meeting of the Peace and Security Council (PSC) of the African Union on the consideration of the situation in Somalia and operations of ATMIS, which was held last week on Thursday (July 28) virtually using the Zoom platform. The Acting Foreign Minister said in a speech that the Federal Government of Somalia is truly grateful to the courageous Somali security services and the AU Forces in Somalia for their sacrifices in advancing national security and the security of the African continent and the world.

South Sudan

South Sudan’s parties to the September 2018 peace deal on Thursday (August 04) signed a roadmap extending the transitional period for 24 months, citing failure to complete critical benchmarks at the agreed time. Five political parties signed the roadmap before the audience in the Freedom Hall in Juba, where President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar attended. Machar said, “We were faced with the issue of either we crush, run elections without critical benchmarks, or extend.” He said the extension was genuinely for the accord to be implemented.

The decision to extend the transitional period is believed to be based on an objective assessment of the situation on the ground in the Republic of South Sudan, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia stated in a statement issued today (August 05). The consultative process followed by South Sudanese stakeholders to achieve this outcome through consensus is commendable, the statement reads. “The Ethiopian Government is confident that this wisdom and spirit of compromise will continue to guide expeditious implementation of the remaining tasks of the Transitional Period,” the Ministry underscored. (See Statement)

Sudan

Deputy Chairman of the Sovereign Council, Mohamed Hamdan Daglo “Hemetti” on Thursday (August 04) paid a short visit to N’Djamena, where he held security talks with Chadian President Mahamat Deby. The visit comes a day after a meeting in Khartoum between the Chairman of the Sovereign Council in Sudan and the Chadian Minister of Defence, who participated in an annual meeting to evaluate the performance of the Sudanese-Chadian joint border forces.

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Emboldened Al-Shabab is why the West needs to re-engage Ethiopia

Last week, Al-Shabaab conducted a multiday campaign inside Ethiopia for the first time. Though rarely this close to the Ethiopian border, Al-Shabaab has frequently targeted the Ethiopian military forces inside Somalia. The roughly 4,000 Ethiopian soldiers serving in the African Union peacekeeping mission, currently known as the African Union Transitional Mission in Somalia, have been the target of previous Al-Shabaab strikes (ATMIS). The terrorist group seems to have shifted its goal to Ethiopian territories this time around.

The good news is that the attack was thwarted and repelled by valiant Ethiopian forces, demonstrating once more that peace in the region is not at the whim of terrorists.

However, the Ethiopian side believes that the most recent cross-border offensive shows Al-Shabaab ‘s emboldened move to pursue its regional aspirations rather than just the typical poorly planned hit-and-run. Ethiopian intelligence is well aware that it took a long time (at least a year) and engaged networks inside Ethiopia to prepare for this operation. Briefly stated, the Islamist militant group seemed to resurrect their long-standing goal of infiltrating Ethiopia and extending their reach into Kenya, Djibouti, and other countries.

This is in line with the outgoing commander of U.S. Africa Command, General Stephen Townsend, who said the recent attack was “not a fluke. … I don’t believe this is a one-off.” The former Al-Shabaab officials also confirmed that erecting the black flag on Ethiopian land would be a huge symbolic victory for the group, encouraging global jihadists to support them.

As Ethiopia is a vital stabilizing force and a reliable security ally for the West and other international partners, this is not in the best interests of the Horn, Africa, or the global security system.

Al-shabab’s rise – truth or fiction?

The African Union Commission’s Special Representative for Somalia and the head of the African Union Mission in Somalia (now ATMIS), Francisco Caetano Jose Madeira, recently stated that terrorism-related violence has surged in Somalia. He mentioned that “Al-Shabab has been primarily responsible for the violence, which has included IEDs, mortar attacks, ambushes, and targeted assassinations of senior government officials, Somali security forces, and civilians.” he mentioned.

Simply, in the words of General Stephen Alshabab, “got bigger, bolder, stronger.” According to intelligence shared by U.N. member states, al-Shabab currently commands between 7,000 and 12,000 fighters and is spending approximately $24 million a year – a quarter of its budget – on weapons, explosives, and increasingly on drones. There is also growing concern that Al-Shabab is growing more powerful and more influential within al-Qaida itself.

Several explanations can be connected to Alshabab’s recent audacious action. One is the postponed election in Somalia, which occupied most of the last 18 months’ attention of Somali officials and lawmakers. Al-Shabab exploited the tension between various political figures. Due to security vacuums, the militants’ seem to have been able to travel with relative ease and mobilize their forces.

The group may also perceive an opportunity because the Ethiopian government’s primary security concern has been the conflict in the northern part and increased ethnic-based attacks by terrorist OLF-Shene rebels. Although the well trained Somali regional Special Forces are assigned to protect the nation from the intimidation of ragtag outfits, the Ethiopian National Defense Force provides leadership, intelligence, and reinforcement.

The West-Ethiopia re-engagement: the only way out

But, more importantly than the previous two, Al-Shabab may view the strained diplomatic relationship between Ethiopia and the West as the most promising opportunity. Ethiopia and the West collaborated in combatting terrorism in the Horn of Africa. Any fracture in this strong partnership would only furnish fertile ground for Al-Shabab to flourish.

The Ethiopian government recognizes and appreciates the United States’ and the West’s desire for peace in Ethiopia. Every Ethiopian also wants to see it. However, there is growing worry that sanctions such as withholding budgetary support, development assistance and removing Ethiopia from the AGOA free trade agreement will neither help to stabilize Ethiopia nor foster peace and democracy. Budget cuts, which may have an immediate impact on Ethiopia’s military, may only encourage Al-Shabab and other extremist groups to disrupt the region.

Ethiopia’s government has declared a cease-fire, released political prisoners, and launched a series of efforts to hold a comprehensive national dialogue. President Biden reached out to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed on January 10, 2022, and promised to continue diplomatic efforts based on “constructive engagement,” emphasizing the importance of the US-Ethiopia relationship and the potential to strengthen collaboration on a variety of issues. It has been open to both the US and EU+UK special envoys. It is high time for partners to reciprocate Ethiopia’s efforts.

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Towards COP27: African Regional Forum on Climate Initiatives to Finance Climate Action and the SDGs

Ahmed Shede, Minister of Finance, stated that Ethiopia generates more than 90% of its modern electricity from clean and green sources, including hydropower generated by the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which will also enable electricity exports to neighboring countries. He emphasized that despite having a high energy producing capacity, Ethiopia still has the second-largest energy access deficit in Sub-Saharan Africa and the third-largest in the world.

The Minister was giving a speech at the ECA on August 3, 2022, the first day of a three-day African Regional Roundtable on Climate Initiatives that was held in Addis Ababa. The Roundtable aims to spur climate finance and investment flows in order to increase Africa’s climate resilience. Along with the African Finance and Trade Ministers and other stakeholders, representatives from the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs also attended the meeting.

The statements of Finance Minister Ahmed Shede further emphasized how vulnerable nations are bearing the burden of the climate crisis despite their modest contribution to global warming and aspirational climate goals. He said the impact of climate change on Ethiopia has resulted in growing humanitarian needs in large parts of the country, causing widespread displacement and disproportionally affecting the most vulnerable segments of society and significantly affecting the country’s fiscal space. To illustrate his point, Ahmed Shede said: “The recent climate change-induced drought, which Ethiopia experienced in 2021/22, is the worst in forty years, which is severely affecting millions in the southern and eastern parts of the country.”

The climate challenge is exacerbated by additional shocks that many developing economies are experiencing as a result of rising commodity prices, high rates of inflation, and the slow recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the finance minister, who also emphasizes the urgency of taking action on climate change and related issues. He urged rich nations to uphold their promises to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to provide funding to the most vulnerable economies so they can transition to low-emission growth trajectories as well as adapt to the effects of climate change. The industrialized countries’ 2009 commitment to mobilize USD 100 billion annually by 2020 has not been met, according to recent studies from the OECD and Standing Committee on Finance.

Vera Songwe, the Executive Secretary of the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), underlined during her remarks at the Roundtable that Africa must take an all-encompassing approach to addressing the immediate effects of climate change on the continent. She added that the Multilateral Development Banks must enhance the flow of financing into sustainable infrastructure and that urgent development funds need to come from the Resilience and Sustainability Trust. The financial shortfall for infrastructure in Africa, according to Songwe, is expected to be between 130 billion and 170 billion USD annually through 2025. She claims that the cumulative effects of multiple years of drought and disturbances in the food chain supply are causing 55 million people in the Horn of Africa to experience food insecurity.

The forum, coming ahead of Egypt’s presidency of the 27th United Nations Climate Change conference (COP27) that takes place in Sharm El Sheikh next November, was held under the theme: “Towards COP27: African Regional Forum on Climate Initiatives to Finance Climate Action and the SDGs.”

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Statement on the Extension of the Transitional Period in the Republic of South Sudan

The Government of Ethiopia has learnt on August 4, 2022, the news of the extension of the transitional period in the Republic of South Sudan for an additional 24 months with the aim of successfully completing the pending outstanding tasks outlined in the Peace Agreement.

The decision to extend the transitional period is believed to be based on an objective assessment of the situation on the ground in the Republic of South Sudan. The consultative process followed by South Sudanese stakeholders to achieve this outcome through consensus is commendable. The Ethiopian Government is confident that this wisdom and spirit of compromise will continue to guide expeditious implementation of the remaining tasks of the Transitional Period.

Ethiopia, as usual, will stand with the Republic of South Sudan in its effort to chart the best way forward to ensure the sustainable peace and prosperity of the brotherly people of South Sudan.

5 August 2022